Last week in The Bookseller, Philip Jones covered a seminar in the UK by Enders Analysis that presented data done as a part of a Nielsen BookScan report. The article led with the following statement.
“The growth in e-book sales in genres such as romance and science-fiction is leading to a cannibalisation in sales of printed books, according to Nielsen BookScan data.”
This led to the inevitable debate on the Read2.0 listserv (also known as the Brantley List for the devoted followers of Mike Shatzkin). While there was little illumination in the ensuing voluminous discussion, there was an overall consensus that ebooks were indeed cannibalizing print books.
While I see the logic behind this understanding – I posit a slightly more nuanced definition of what is happening: Ebooks aren’t cannibalizing print books — consumers with ebook reading devices are, as a rule, no longer buying print books. Subtle? Yes, but from a commercial publishing point of view this is a crucial difference between seeing a direct correlation between ebooks and print books and understanding what happens to a customer when they make the switch to reading devices.
To wit, last week, on the very same listserv, there was discussion about a new book about the trade publishing industry entitled Merchants of Culture by Cambridge University professor and co-owner of Polity Press, John Thompson. Unfortunately for John, the conversation quickly turned into a series of screed-like complaints about the lack of an ebook version. To most this was especially irritating as John had written and published a seminal work on ebook publishing called Books in the Digital Age.
I happened to see John the same day and I asked him why he didn’t have an ebook. He explained that this was not a strategic decision not to have an ebook — he is entirely happy to have it available in this format — but one driven solely by channel issues that are currently being negotiated and will soon be resolved. I urged John to solve this ASAP because he was losing buyers every day the ebook wasn’t available. This is the real ebook tipping point evidence — lost customers due to the lack of an ebook.
This example doesn’t show ebooks cannibalizing print books — it shows something far more revealing. Going back to the Brantley list, f you asked those on the list who consider themselves ebook consumers if they would buy Merchants of Culture in print form, the inevitable answer would be “probably not.”
This is a critical understanding of ebook customers. They invest in a device and platform to read books and therefore become dependent on those channels of ebook distribution for their content. They don’t go into stores and are not very likely to shop in online environments that feature ebooks and print books. Ebookstores on ebook reading devices sell only ebooks. Print is not part of the experience.
I know this because ever since I became an ebook reader when the Kindle released, I have steadily lessened the number of print titles I buy or read down to nearly zero. In fact, at my first Bloomsbury sales conference a couple of weeks ago I gave two examples to illustrate this point.
The first example was when David Young of Hachette gave me a copy of a great novel, The Unnamed. I took the book home and started reading it that night – but in the morning it stayed at my bedside when I commuted to work. That night I read a bit more, and then left the book behind again. This time, however, I wanted to read on my commute so I whipped out my trusty Kindle and quickly bought the ebook.
The second example was quite similar. I was in Bloomsbury CEO Nigel Newton’s office and he handed me a copy of our Booker Prize shortlisted work The Finkler Question by Howard Jacobson. I took the book with me to the US, but it flew in my luggage. I purchased the ebook just before I left so I could read it on the plane without having to schlep around a hardcover book.
I was given two free print books and I wound up purchasing them on my Kindle anyway!
Why did I do this? Because ever since I started using a dedicated ereading device and platform I have found the convenience of having all the books I am reading and want to read all in one device far more convenient than toting around one print book at a time. In fact with the Kindle platform, I can read on my MacBook Pro, Kindle, iPhone, iPad, or Blackberry. I read on these devices when I have spare moments, when I travel, when I am in the doctor’s office waiting room, when I don’t want to think about work for 30 minutes and I want to escape. And since they all synchronize to the cloud, I am always exactly where I left off on any device I want to use.
As a result, I read and purchase far more books than I ever have before (save when I was in college) because I now have my books —and the ability to get most any book I want — at all times and in all places. And because I am an ebook reader, I shop for virtually all of my reading in ebookstores.
Therein lies the rub. The most important lesson I can convey to book publishing professionals is that they must understand that those of us who have made the transition to ebooks, buy ebooks, not print books. Ebook reading device users don’t shop in bookstores and then decide what edition they want; ebook device readers buy what is available in ebookstores. Search an ebookstore for a title and if it doesn’t come up, it doesn’t exist – no matter how many versions are available in print.
Ebooks aren’t a better value, ebooks aren’t more attractive nor are they a threat to the print version of any immersive reading book. This isn’t the same as paperback versions vs hardcover – where the platform and convenience are the same – the timing and pricing are the key ingredients. Books that aren’t in ebook form are do not exist to ebook reading consumers. There is no cannibalization if in the mind of the buyer if there is no version available to them.
The good news is that the same Nielsen study shows a significant portion of the ereading market buys more ebooks than they did print books. Furthermore, the study also shows that 80% surveyed would never consider buying a dedicated ebook reading device. So in the end, the book-selling world may lose 25% or so of its print customers to ebooks, but those customers will likely buy more product than they would have if they didn’t use an ereader.
Publishers must face the vibrant and growing market of ebooks with a view that their print runs and print sell-through have been and will continue to be downwardly affected by the loss of consumers to ebook reading devices. However, this isn’t cannibalization, it’s an opportunity for market expansion by feeding ereading consumers more of what they want to find.
Eoin Purcell
on Sep 27th, 2010
@ 10:58 am:
Evan,
I don’t see how this makes much difference other than semantics. The two critical facts from the presentation were:
1) Specific genre saw e-sales go up
2) Same specific genre saw p-sales go down
It is thus seems clear that ebook sales were driving down sales pbooks. All of which equalled cannibalization.
Now in the medium to long run you may very well get those ebook buyers to buy more ebooks than they ever did pbooks (and thus increase the overall revenue of the genre), but those sales are definitely affecting pbook sales.
Whether you decide that that’s people’s doing or the fact that ebooks are now available, the result is the same, pbooks sales fall because of ebooks/people who read ebooks.
I remain unconvinced though that this will result in a profitable expansion of the market for current publishers
Eoin
Go Read This | Ebooks Don’t Cannibalize Print, People Do « Black Plastic Glasses | Eoin Purcell's Blog
on Sep 27th, 2010
@ 11:00 am:
[...] via Ebooks Don’t Cannibalize Print, People Do « Black Plastic Glasses. [...]
Scott Walker
on Sep 27th, 2010
@ 11:19 am:
The unbundling of content from medium causes both an evaporation of formerly accessible value and the creation of new value opportunities.
This article highlights the emphasis consumers place on the services wrapped around the content, which is where all of the new value opportunities are emerging.
Moni
on Sep 27th, 2010
@ 2:00 pm:
I have long debated print v ebook and am on the verge of ‘giving’ in to ebook readers. As a librarian, I am somewhat torn. As a systems librarian/webmaster, I keep wondering what my problem is.
But you justified it right here: “Because ever since I started using a dedicated ereading device and platform I have found the convenience of having all the books I am reading and want to read all in one device far more convenient than toting around one print book at a time.”
I bought 5 print books at Borders yesterday, because I had convinced myself that I prefer print! But this morning I noticed, I can’t bring ALL of them to work. But I could if I had an ereader. Although I prefer reading a print book, they are not as “convenient” as an ebook.
Thanks for the article!
Joe Hauer
on Sep 27th, 2010
@ 2:11 pm:
I just bought 2 kindles, one for me, one for my wife.
I have purchased 2 books I already own for the same reasons; adding one reason, for the ability to search the book.
I am actually trying to keep myself from buying another book that I am reading in printed form as an ebook, solely to see if I can keep myself from buying the ebook.
I am trying to convince myself that I will continue to buy printed books, but I am not so sure that will be the case.
If the economy made it as easy for people to buy ereaders as it did during the boom to buy ipods, the transition would be faster.
In any case 100% agreed, it is not cannibalization. Also and aside, I would not stop if the ebook was the same price as print. I do not mind paying for books that are worth the money, whatever format they are in.
Corey Podolsky
on Sep 27th, 2010
@ 3:39 pm:
Great post Evan. Although I think that the debate of digital cannibalizing print misses the overall mark.
Your posts suggest that overall book sales should be rising; a percentage of book buyers no longer buy print, but that segment will purchase more books overall, albeit digitally. This could only be bad for the Industry if ebooks are sold at a substantial discount to Print.
It would be very interesting if Nielsen BookScan (or someone) would do a follow up study on the price elasticity of ebooks relative to print. If ebooks were priced on par with print, would ebooks buyers continue to purchase more books?
I would bet yes, that the convenience would still win out.
Digital cannibalizing Print is too simplistic. The focus should be on convenience, price and the price elasticity of demand of the various formats.
scott
on Sep 27th, 2010
@ 9:11 pm:
Um. With this same argument, digital music didn’t cannabalize CDs people owning ipods did.
I’ve certainly bought more music on my ipod and iphone than I did before, but I’m paying a lot less for it too.
If the music business is any inidication of the future of ebooks… watch out publishers.
Evan Reply:
September 28th, 2010 at 3:13 am
It is a real trap trying to compare music an books… music gave away gold masters which were easily disaggregated and freely distributed. Books dont suffer from either condition.
John
on Sep 28th, 2010
@ 3:39 pm:
What you’ve said is pretty much the exact same for me too.
Wish more books were available digitally and in Canada.
eBooks provide benefit across the publishing value chain | Michael Gracie
on Sep 29th, 2010
@ 7:46 am:
[...] Evan Schnittman notes, the growing investment in readers makes eBook version availability a must: Ebooks aren’t a [...]
On Publishing Economics & Canabilsm | Eoin Purcell's Blog
on Sep 29th, 2010
@ 8:27 am:
[...] Schnittman has an interesting analysis in which he posits that ebooks are not the issue, it is the changing way people interact with books when they sh… and that it’s not such a problem in the medium to long run: The good news is that the same [...]
Matt
on Sep 29th, 2010
@ 5:31 pm:
Great article. I too, have purchased an ebook while having the print book. I felt stupid doing it, but it’s just too darn convenient. The survey that says 80% would never consider buying an ebook is only because they don’t know any better. They’ll come around.
I really have trouble understanding why textbooks are slow coming around. I understand that it will decimate backpack sales, but that’s not the publishers problem.
Irfon-Kim Ahmad
on Sep 29th, 2010
@ 7:03 pm:
I’ve had an ebook reader for some time, and this is entirely true of me, but I’d say that my case is even more advanced.
By and large, if a book isn’t released as an ebook, I just won’t buy it. I would say that for fiction that’s been 100% true for some time now. And so I do browse for titles to buy on the ebook stores, and ignore what’s not available in the format.
Recently, an instructional book on a very narrow topic came out — it’s a unique book, in fact. As far as I know no other book on this topic exists, worldwide. I knew about its release far in advance because I’m very involved in the small, tightly-knit community from whence it came. As such, I bought the print edition. When it arrived, I started to devour it, and for the first evening was delighted. Since then, I’ve had to force myself to read it one other time but otherwise it’s gathering dust. Recently the ebook edition was announced as forthcoming, and I will almost certainly buy it as soon as it arrives.
However, a bigger demonstration of what you’re talking about comes in other non-fiction books that I’ve been purchasing for work lately. I didn’t even look at Amazon and other sites that specialize in print books, even though the selection is larger. I’ve looked exclusively through ebook sources. And in the case where I couldn’t find one that fit my criteria (in particular, all the ebooks on the subject were out of date), instead of conceding and buying a print book, I decided to find free websites to read up on the subject from instead. So absolutely if there is someone out there who had a more recent book on the subject, by not having it available as an ebook they lost a sale right then an there.
I’ve pretty much learned my lesson now, in fact. I doubt I’ll buy any more print books in the future, no matter how interesting they may look. The reality is that I just don’t read them, and they sit on my bedside table in an ever increasing pile, making me feel guilty. And what’s the point in that, when instead I could buy a good ebook and actually read it?
Three fledglings that really should fly – The Shatzkin Files
on Sep 30th, 2010
@ 6:53 am:
[...] a recent blogosphere conversation sparked by Evan Schnittman’s observation that the impact of the ebook shift could be an expansion of the …, Eoin Purcell wrote about the commercial impact of readers shifting from ebooks to print. Purcell [...]
Jim
on Sep 30th, 2010
@ 11:43 am:
I think it would be helpful if BookScan confirmed that the same retailers reporting in 2009 were also reporting in 2010. If not, then the YOY analysis is distorted.
Paco Prieto » La servilleta dominical, edición 03.10.01
on Oct 3rd, 2010
@ 10:21 am:
[...] (localizado a través de @javigoto). Y en la otra mano un recordatorio sobre el hecho de que No és el ebook quien “canibaliza” el libro impreso. Son las personas, los usuarios quienes responden a un mercado, a una industria, a unas tendencias,… si éstas [...]
Michael Allen
on Oct 4th, 2010
@ 2:24 am:
Yes, owners of Kindles etc *do* buy — when we can get it. Often, I find that I can’t. Case in point: today, found reference to David Sedaris’s Squirrel Seeks Chipmunk. This is available in Kindle in the US, but not in the UK. Am I going to buy paper version? No. Am I going to look up my local library? Maybe. But the most likely result is that I shall just read something else on my Kindle. As far as I am concerned, and I may be an odd type of reader, publishers are losing potential purchases from me on a daily basis. Most common reason: ebook price is absurdly high, causing me to mutter two words. Second reason: they haven’t even had the wit to publish a Kindle version at all. Which, come to think of it, is par for the course from our forward-thinking, innovative IK publishers.
MRW
on Oct 4th, 2010
@ 8:18 am:
“I really have trouble understanding why textbooks are slow coming around. ”
For most books, simply transferring the text while maintaining paragraph structure is enough. Textbook publishers are used to paying attention to graphics and page layout. Few e-book readers can display color graphics (some don’t even do a good job with grayscale). Few e-book readers have sufficient screen size to display the same page layout as a textbook – and even if they did most e-book formats wouldn’t preserve the layout anyway.
Additionally, the markets are very different. Assuming comparable profits per book (flawed, but bear with me), publisher benefit if the total sales increase, even if the print book sales decrease. In the fiction market, the existence of e-books increases total sales even as it decreases print sales. In the textbook market, I doubt this will be true.
Kindle, eBooks continue to take over book sales « Kindle Review – Kindle 3 Review, iPad Review
on Oct 13th, 2010
@ 5:22 am:
[...] Schnittman writes that eBooks don’t cannibalize Print, People do - I posit a slightly more nuanced definition of what is [...]
Alison
on Oct 15th, 2010
@ 12:30 pm:
I have hardly bought a printed book in a year, and I used to be a big consumer (witness my dusty bookcases.) I now either buy the book as an ebook, or get it from the library. With the Amazon Kindle samples I can try out a book. If I like it a lot I buy it. If I think it’s ok, I check it out from the library. The big exception is knitting books. I still buy those in print.
Why we should get ready for a plunge in print book sales, by Peter Ginna « Readersforum's Blog
on Dec 18th, 2010
@ 4:19 am:
[...] p-book sales on a one to one basis, as my colleague Evan Schnittman points out in his post “E-Books Don’t Cannibalize Print, People Do.” Evan argues that once you have adopted an e-reader–whether it’s Kindle, Nook, or your [...]